Against the Grain

As expected the Fed left rates unchanged (0.25%) with an upbeat statement that boosted equities and weakened the US$. They reaffirmed rates will be low for an extended period, which was last week defined by an FOMC member as three to four meetings out that takes us to the early Spt meeting. This was followed by the BoJ holding its rate at 0.1% with more stimulus which weakened the yen and boosted Asian equities. All this telescoped into a rise in metals during Asian trading. Elsewhere, there is no let up in the China “boom or bust” debate, perhaps best to sit back and take a six month view otherwise you will drown in the print, what we have picked up is a focus on 2012 when the present hierarchy hands over to a new team, till then stability and status quo are the watch words. As a friend said today “there is probably nothing more difficult than trying to make day to day sense of a process which is set to take decades to work out. The world is in a major paradigm shift and that is coupled with a significant state of collective denial. (He) I suppose that part of living and working in markets is understanding that capital has no political affiliations or moral scruples. Even less does it have a long term view”.

The metals continue to lack a mind of their own preferring to be correlated to the general macro move. With the US$ holding around the low of its trading € 1.380 the metals steady just below their highs. Ni got a boost from news that a problem at the hydrogen plant has halted production at BHPBilliton’s Kwinana refinery in Western Australia. The LME stocks saw more al in (Sing 10 kt, less than we expected) and cu down (globally) though neither was enough to influence prices. The Peruvian government has said Doe Run must restart its La Oroya smelting operation by the end of Jul or face “other measures”, closed since Jne they employ around 20 k people and recently got a credit line from Glencore. In the oil market OPEC met today and left output quotas unchanged estimating 2010 world growth at 4 / 4.5% (OECD is looking for 3.4%), each 1% of growth is estimated to add 500 kbpd to world oil demand. Pitiful Select volumes as London struggled to make its mind up with the a touch better and FTSE a bit higher. After 13:30 double D kicked in with DJI trumping US$ however the volumes remained low. Perhaps no better signal of the uncertainty in the metals is to look below at their move on the day.

In Asia the Jan tertiary industry index rose 2.9% much stronger than expected (Dec -0.9%) and Australian Q4 dwelling starts jumped 15.1% (Q3 +11%). The World Bank in a report has upgraded Chine 2010 growth to 9.5% (Nov 8.7%). In Europe the focus was on Feb UK employment data saw jobless claims fall 32.3 k much better than an expected rise leaving unemployment unchanged at 7.8%, £ stg jumped above 1.53. The Euroland Jan construction output fell 2.2% (Dec revised to -1% from +0.5%) yoy -12.5% (-2.5%) weather will be blamed.

Overnight the weekly ABC consumer confidence had a strong improvement to -43 (-49). The weekly MBA mortgage applications down 1.9% (+0.5%) as bond rates remained high. At 12:30 the Feb PPI fell 0.6% against a small rise (Jan +1.4%) yoy 4.4% (4.6%) and ex food and energy +0.1% as expected (+0.3%) yoy unchanged at 1%. The US Senate passed an employment bill (68 votes to 29)  for the President to sign.

Further to our comments on China y/day from the DJ newswire came this interesting quote from a Chinese Shanghai exchange trader “China’s current prices are ahead of supply / demand fundamentals, we are in the high consumption season but manufacturer activity has just started picking up, so I guess that’s why we’ve seen prices consolidating for so long … the market needs to digest the higher prices”.

The double D’s (DJI / Dollar) gave metals a small boost in light Asian trading as the markets lack a quarry to chase, the recent economic stories have lacked legs; Chile, China rate hike and currency appreciation while US data and news has been in line. As regular as clock third Wed LME al stocks jumped (Detroit landed 22.6 & cancelled 24 kt) and expect more in the next couple of days, zn increased while cu led the fallers. The al was instantly cancelled as traders who are buying the metal off producers look to move it out to customers or into financed (dead) stock. The attached Bloomberg al price / stock chart shows how we have sawed along record stocks since Aug ’09 with a declining trend just beginning. The warehouse system is such that material can be landed in bulk on the private side of a warehouse with a set LME material withdrawal quota of 1500 tonnes of all metals / warehouse / location /day. So if this al is in one warehouse in Detroit it will take 16 days to move but if the existing 85 kt is  in that warehouse there is 56 days of material in the queue ahead. News from China that drought induced power shortages in Yunnan province were 70% is hydro has forced al and pb smelters to cut output. In Zambia the 10 ktpa Munali ni mine is set to restart operation managed by the Junchian Group after being placed on care and maintenance in Mch ’09. Under construction since 2005 the problematic Vale Goro laterite ni mine in New Caledonia is set to produce its first ni by early Apr having cost US$ 4.3 billion with a target capacity of 60 ktpa. In Australia Japan’s Toho Zinc which owns 24% of zn miner CBH Resources has put in a counter bid to Nyrstar takeover offer. The group produces 60 kt of zn in concentrate and the Rasp deposit to be developed, highlighting the urgent need custom zn smelters have to secure feed. The ILZSG said Jan pb surplus was 2700 tonnes. From the ME Emirate’s al is looking to increase smelting capacity from 300 kt to 700 kt by Dec. In the pre market a weaker US$ helped the metals higher and then back to the double D’s.

In Europe the Mch German ZEW economic sentiment survey 44.5 (45.1), current improved to - 51.9 (-54.8) the ZEW Euroland sentiment survey was 37.9 (40.2). The Feb Euroland CPI rose 0.3% (-0.8%) and yoy +0.9% (+0.9%). The € gained as the EU finance ministers laid the ground to break their own rules to bail out Greece.

The Fed FOMC meets today with a “no change” announcement expected at 18:15.The weather effected Feb housing starts down 5.9% at 575 k (revised to +6.6% at 611 k from +2.8%) and building permits fell 1.6% at 612 k (-4.7% at 622 k).

When analysts look at China the discussion quickly degenerates into a boom or bust argument. Perhaps it is more an evolutionary process; going back to ’07 the Chinese central government tried to slow the economy and this was exacerbated by the banking collapse in the West. This forced them to embark on a major economic recovery policy through a mixture of monetary and fiscal policy that measured something in the region of 30% of the economy. This “lift off” phase seems to have stopped the wobble and put the economy back on an even keel with Q4 GDP at 10.7%. With the ship steadied the policy emphasis has turned to slowing those sectors that are overheated (housing, steel, cement) and husbanding other areas (rural development and exports). We expect growth to level off towards 8% this will slow (not halt) Chinese demand for resources and affect import levels. The next phase is how the investors adjust to this trend, China is being driven by a small focused elite while the investors are a disparate mob motivated by greed and haunted by fear. The ILZSG reported that the global zn market had a 71 kt surplus in Jan with global refined zn at 932 kt (683 kt in Jan ’09) giving a stock to consumption ratio of 7.7 weeks.

Base metals began in Asia with two major news items, in Chile an electrical transformer problem plunged the country in darkness, again miners quick to come out with situation reports. While in China expectations of further economic tightening weighted on the markets with Shanghai equities down 1.2%. The latter seemed to have the edge as prices began the third Wed prompt trading under some pressure. The LME stocks saw only pb post a rise and al dominate the declines. For al the attention turns how much mid month stock appears into the warehouses Wed onwards. Interesting article on cu hidden away in the FT 14/03 by John Dizard “Copper market looking tarnished” (www.ft.com). The pre market saw prices pressured as they tended to lead the US$ strength. No sooner does one reopen and another Chinese pb smelter Zhongyi Alloy Co in Sichuan get closed over health issues. In Canada Vale looks to restart Sudbury ni complex with contractors strike is affecting the 85 ktpa production since Jul and Voisey’s Bay 77 ktpa since Aug. The pre market saw prices pressured as they tended to lead the US$ strength. NB. the official 3 mth cu close was 7301, with a Select low at the time of 7317, the vagaries of 2RC. The DJI came in early at 13:30 take some of the currency pressure off the metals. After that lacking independent thought the metals did the “shuffle” around the two D’s (DJI and US$).

In Asia Jan Singapore retail sales rose 2.3% yoy (Dec -4.9%), the first rise in 16 months. The Chinese Jan / Feb rose 4.86% to US$ 14.02 billion. In Japan Feb consumer confidence improved to 40.0 (39.4). Little in Europe with Euroland Q4 employment declining 2% yoy (-2.2%). At a press conference to end the annual parliamentary meeting the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao damped market speculation about a revaluation of its currency.

US daylight savings started Sun so data came early at 12:30 the US Mch NY Empire manufacturing index 22.86 (24.91) followed at 13:15 by Feb industrial production rose 0.1% (+0.9%) and capacity utilisation 72.7% (72.5%), all pretty much as expected. At 17:00 the Mch NAHB housing market index was a disappointing 15 (17).

The end of a very quiet week in Asia and we have a growing suspicion from anecdotal comments and discussions in the market that final metal demand is not consistent with the strong official economic data. The week end’s with focus on the US consumer and this is the real focus point, final demand.

Asian Select volume was on the light side with price locked in narrow ranges with a slight uptick as the US$ weakened in early London. The weekly Shanghai stocks registered rises cu rose 6849 tonnes to 155,469; al up 11,316 tonnes to 387,549 and zn 33 tonnes at 223,433. Before 9:00 US$ weakness the theme, then daily LME stocks all fell, as well as, on the week for all intent and purpose, cu 11 kt; al 26 kt; zn 2 kt; pb up 175 tonnes; ni 2 kt and sn 539 tonnes. In Canada the unions  at Vale’s Sudbury ni operations rejected a settlement deal and the strike goes on. Parts of the Chinese pb industry closed last year by the lead poisoning accusations are beginning to restart, the Dongling Group is preparing to restart a 100 ktpa (zn 66 ktpa / pb 33 ktpa) smelter in Shaanxi province. Prices continued to move higher as the US$ weakened throughout the pre market but interestingly the dollar is dragging the metals higher unlike their unusual front running. The US data at 13:30 saw the US$ recover from 1.38 capping metal gains, then a lacklustre DJI kept the pressure on as we drifted to a close.

In Japan Jan industrial production rose 2.75% (Dec +2.5%) and yoy +18.5% (+18.2%). The Jan Indian industrial production rose 16.7% yoy (Dec +17.6%). The Feb German wholesale price index rose 0.1% (Jan +1.3%) yoy +2.1% (+1.9%). The Jan Euroland industrial production rose 1.7% (+0.6%) yoy +1.4% (-4.1%) boosting the €.

Across the Pond, Canadian Feb employment grew 21 k with unemployment at 8.2% (8.3%). The Feb US retail sales rose 0.3% against an expected fall (revised to +0.1% from +0.5%), ex autos sales up 0.8% (+0.5%). At 15:00 the preliminary Mch Uni of Michigan consumer confidence slipped to 72.5 (73.6), current index 80.8 (81.8) and expectations 67.2 (68.4). The last drop of the week was Jan business inventories was unchanged (Dec -0.2%).

Beware the Ides of March.

Over the week things were mixed cu down 85, al up 20, zn rose 2, pb increased 35, ni down 680, sn lifted 175, gold down US$ 33 / oz, oil off US$ 0.2 / bbl, DJI up 50 points at time of writing, US 10 year bond yields hardly changed, US$ / € lost .015 and Shanghai down 14 points.

The Dragon roars on, overnight confirmed another strong economic start to the year for the Chinese economy. In Jan – Feb industrial production jumped 20.7% yoy (Dec +18.5%); retail sales up 17.9% with Feb rising 22.1%; urban fixed investment increased 26.6%; Feb financial institution lending was 700.1 billion yuan (Jan 1.39 trillion yuan) – almost mind boggling; Feb PPI +5.4% (Jan +4.3%) and CPI increased 2.7% (+1.5%) with food prices posting a 6.2% gain. This is on top of the car sales, export and import data of the past few days. Yet markets were remarkably subdued as caution rises of China further reigning in its stimulus package and tighten monetary policy at a time when the rest of the world is yet to show real signs of recovery. Back in 2007 China acted on its own to slow its rampant growth but caught out by the collapse of the West. This time they appear to be housekeeping in anticipation of any world recovery.

Regarding the late banana skin y/day we see an oil report that put it down to “moments of algorithmic madness”, expect to hear this more and more. Select volumes were better in Asian but not outstanding and prices just watch the data. Early London trading was not much better again al hardly traded in Asian then volumes picked up rapidly in London. In Feb Chinese refined cu output rose 4.1% to 358 kt.  Except for sn all the LME metals saw stocks decline without any impact on the price. By 09:30 the metals had reverted to keying off the US$. By 14:00 it was unchanged on the day then a reported 7.2 aftershock in Chile at 14:30 sent cu scampering higher, 7480 up nearly US$ 100 in 30 minutes (just as the new President Pinera was being inaugurated). By 16:00 further support from the directions of the DJI and US$.

Other data saw Japanese Q4 GDP revised down to 3.8% from 4.6%. In Australia Feb unemployment rose to 5.3% (5.2%). There was nothing of note out of Europe. In Malaysia Jan industrial production rose 12.7% yoy (Dec +7.5%).

The US weekly jobless claims 462 k (468 k) and the Jan trade deficit US$ 37.3 billion (Dec -40.2 billion). After that the focus came back to the US$ and equities.

Another very quiet 24 hours can the markets run this calm for a third day, it looked like that with metals seeing steady gains then wiped out in the last 30 minutes? At the time of writing have not been able to get a handle on why but DJI down on the day, gold at 1107, oil 81.5, € 1.364 and cu 7420 with ni taking the biggest hit on the day.

LME Select volumes and ranges in Asia were extremely low as markets stand back waiting for the next trend. In these conditions a miniscule move in the US$ can boomerang cu US4 20 / 30 either way. Chinese Feb combined cu imports are reported to have risen 10% to 322 kt which equates to a 2% fall yoy; their iron ore imports rose 6% mom to 49.38 million tonnes. The LME stock trend the same as the market ignored them as they followed the US$. As the dealers moved to the floor the US$ broke above € 1.36 and metals moved higher led by pb as it narrowed the US$ 120 spread to zn. With half an hour to go the DJI was unchanged and US$ weaker (€ 1.3670) pushing metals to their highs then for a small equity dip and US$ recovery the metals gave back most of their gains and more cu lost US$ 100.

In Asia the Australian Mch Westpac consumer confidence index was 117.3 (Feb 117), as Jan home loans fell 7.9% (-5.1%) and investment lending rose 0.9% (+1.6%). The Feb Chinese exports rose 46% yoy (Jan +21%) with some saying the increase could be affected by exports brought forward by Easter orders ahead of the CNY. Imports increased 45% yoy (86%) which saw the trade surplus at a one year low US$ 7.6 billion. Much more Chinese data Thurs. In Europe Jan French industrial production rose 1.6% (-0.2%) boosted by the utilities in the cold weather (Dec -0.2%) yoy +3.5% (-1.8%) and manufacturing +0.8% (-0.9%) yoy +4.4% (-1.4%) in Italy IP rose 2.6% (-0.2%) and yoy -3.3% (-2.2%). The UK Jan industrial production fell 0.4% (+0.5%) yoy -1.5% (-3.7%) and manufacturing down 0.9% (+0.9%) yoy +0.2% (-1.9%). All yoy data reflects the server slump this time last year. The Italian Q4 GDP was -0.3% (Q3 +0.5%) and yoy -3% (-4.8%).

Overnight the weekly ABC consumer sentiment survey was unchanged at -49. The weekly MBA mortgage applications +0.5% (+14.6%). That’s it for data today except for Jan wholesale inventories that fell 0.2% (-1%) and some volatile weekly Department of Energy inventory data.

With few macro developments markets began the day on an extremely steady note. A UK newspaper The Independent had a very good comment in it by the HSBC Chief Economist, Stephen King “By now we should have recognised that the consensus gets things badly wrong. It maybe the best measure at any point in time the “central expectation” of economists and investors but a central expectation hardly captures the hopes, fears and worries that are part of everyday life”. At present we suspect consensus is too bullish just as last year we said it was too bearish. That is why when we see the crowd massing behind a view we go looking for why they could be wrong.

The quiet market conditions flowed out of the US and into Asia with prices arriving back in London little changed and that could be an overstatement. The LME stock trends continued al, cu and ni down however traders paid no attention. The proportion to cancelled warrants in cu and al are declining steady as material is withdrawn while pb at 8% reflects the large cancellations a month ago that has not moved. The next test for al is Mch third Wed, next week to see if we get the now regular monthly flood inflow. The pre market saw metals dragged down by a firmer US$ and lower equities in light volumes. The week has begun with a feeling we are “in the eye of the storm”.

The data out of Asia shows the strength of the Pacific Basin recovery China’s Feb passenger car sales rose 55% to 943 k, while total vehicle sales rose 46% to 1.21 million sales supported by the New year holiday and stimulus package. The Feb Australian NAB business confidence index improved to 19 (Jan 15) as business conditions was 8 (3) and Feb ANZ job advertisements jumped 19.1% (-8.1%). In Japan Jan leading index was up to 97.1 (94.3) and coincident index 99.9 (97.4). On Thurs we get the Feb data from China. The NYT reports the country’s chief currency regulator, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, renewed its commitment to US Treasury market and said wary of substantially boosting gold holdings. They also expected more capital inflow partly reflecting expectations of a strengthening currency. The UK Jan trade deficit widened to £ 8 billion the widest since Aug ’08 as imports fell 1.6% and exports declined 6.9%.

No data from the US, as the equity gains offset the US$ strength.

Following the hosing down of the Greek debt fear we begin the week with a very benign macro economic outlook that should see investors push the markets higher. There is little economic data this week before Fri US retail sales and then early next week the Fed FOMC meets and any change in policy would be a shock. Looking forward what will change this outlook, unknown, unknowns. The hottest topic now is will China allow the yuan to appreciate and by how much, there is a lot of analyst, economist and professorial posturing but little from the people who will make the decision and they usually post a web message when the market least expects it. In another move the Chinese authorities plan to nullify all future guarantees local governments provide for loans taken out by their financing vehicles. This time last year the Chinese authorities and investors were getting unison, stimulus and low rates spurring a rush into commodities, now it seems they are on opposing sides the Chinese trying to slow the pace while investors push the price.

A quiet and firm start to activity in Asia that extended into London as the market was happy to go with the flow. The LME stock moves continued the recent trend, al, cu and ni down with pb up. Over the weekend Vale’s Inco ni unit saw wage talks breakdown continuing the strike that began in Jul ’09. Last week we hear Chinese cu smelters hinting at slowing demand this week has started with Jinchuan, the large ni group saying they expected lukewarm demand growth and prices averaging US$ 18,000 this year. Anglo American said it had received strong interest for its zn assets presently on the block. The Chinese Hunan Group saw the country’s zn demand growing by at least 15% this year. By 14:00 more al had traded on Select than cu, a long time since we last saw that.

Over the weekend the Chinese Commerce Minister said the trade surplus for Jan / Feb was 50.2% less than the same period in ’09, we suspect reflecting the recovery in imported raw materials. We see a flow of Chinese Jan / Feb data on Thurs. The Feb Japanese Economic watchers survey rose to 44.8 (Jan 41.9), the outlook was 44.8 (41.9). In France the Feb BoF business sentiment dipped 102 (104). Finally the Jan German industrial production rose 0.6% (-1.0%) yoy +2.2% (-5.75).

No US data so that leaves the US$ and equities to drive prices.

Well major news is at the front and back of the day. In China Wen Jiabo predicted GDP would grow at 8% in ‘10, the same level that has been surpassed in the last 5 years. He went on to warn of latent risks in the banking and public finance sectors are increasing. In Europe, Germany meets Greece over finances and how to keep the latter from going to the IMF for help. Then this afternoon US employment data view non farm payrolls down and unemployment unchanged (when compiled the figures took account of the bad weather).

The slowest day of the week in Asia with prices up a tad. Bloomberg had an article with the second largest cu smelter Tongling saying demand was weak especially from the power industry that earlier this year announced a large cutback in ’10 investment spending. The top smelter Jiangxi  plans to increase ’10 production to 900 kt (800 kt ’09), it has smelting capacity for 600 kt from concentrate and 200 kt out of scrap that can be ramped up, interesting their outlook real demand as so – so but relying on investment demand to boost prices. There was little change in weekly Shanghai stocks cu down 858 tonnes at 148,620; al rose 5555 tonnes to 376,233 and zn dipped 202 tonnes to 223,400. The recent LME stock trend of withdrawals continued, on the week cu was down 6 kt, al 30 kt, zn 1 kt, pb rose 5 kt, ni down 1.8 kt and sn off 400 tonnes. The LME initial margins on al, ni, pb and sn have been reduced. The pre market saw the metals dancing on a pin (cu 7480 / 7500 range) ahead of employment but which way will the US$ 200 move be after that? The immediate reaction was a touch higher cu and stronger US$ ahead of US equities with the DJI posting a 50 point gain. The momentum was upwards into the end of the week, the Greek problem has passed, all the signs are interest rate will remain low and growth is building allowing risk to be increased despite a stronger US$.

In Europe the Feb UK input PPI was 0.1% (Jan +2%), yoy +6.9% (revised to 7.7% from 8.4%) and output PPI rose 0.3% (+0.4%) yoy +4.1% (+2.5%). The Jan German factory orders jumped 4.3% (-2.3%) yoy +19.6% (+7.3%). The OECD Jan composite leading indicators continue to signal improvements in G7 economic activity while in the BRIC’s China and Russian continued to expand while India and Brazil saw recovery losing momentum. Iceland holds a referendum Sat on whether to repay British and Dutch government monies outstanding from their collapsed banks.

The Feb non farm payrolls declined by 36 k, the low end of expectations (Jan revised to -26 k from -20 k), factory jobs rise 1 k (Jan 20 k), construction -64 k (-77 k) and services +24 k (+27 k). Unemployment steady at 9.7%, average hourly earnings rose 0.1% (+0.2%) and the average weekly hours 33.8 (33.9).

Another week of everything posting gains cu 340, al 115, zn 146, pb 48, ni 1350, sn 250, gold US$ 23 / oz, oil US$ 81.6 / bbl, DJI at time of writing 204, 10 year US bond yields rose 0.07, US$ / € 0.004 except Shanghai equities fell 21.

The financial market investment instruments tends to focus on the most transparent area of the metals, the LME price however increasingly the price will be driven by developments in the more opaque areas of concentrates and scrap, (see article from Time Magazine “Rouge in Reverse”). The financial climate over the past 12 months has allowed the existing metal supply to be accumulated in the strong hands of the Chinese, international traders and banks and unless we see scares as with the unexpected Chinese rate move in Jan, prices of LME materials is set to move higher irrespective of underlying fundamentals. Last week we mentioned high frequency trading and estimates that such firms trade 80%+ of equities, futures 65%, options 58%, bonds 35% and currencies 25%, the recent correlation of all markets to foreign exchange and sovereign debt shows how automated trading has grow away from the main movers.

We have not seen this for a while, for the third day in a row Asia refused to accept the Western euphoria in commodities driving the prices lower. The DJI giving back early gains and some reality in Europe where it seems Germany will not ride to Greece’s rescue (partly because under EU rules it is illegal but when has that stopped the political elite) took the gloss off the € gains. So for the time being the macro events will toss the metals around. In Asia equities sold off as a Chinese bank predicted a slower growth in new lending. As soon as metals hit London the US$ was the driving force. In the present situation the LME stocks were supportive with falls in cu (mostly Europe and cancelled warrants), al (Europe & US) and ni (Rott). On warrants someone told us y/day that if you cancelled al warrants in Baltimore you would have to wait over 120 days to get them out because the warehouse only needs to move 800 tonnes per day and cancelled there is 95 kt. It is reported Q2 Japanese al premium around US$ 124 / tonne over LME cash price or 5% lower than Q1. The IAI reports Jan Chinese daily average primary al output was 41.7 kt with total monthly production at 1.292 mill tonnes (Dec 42.9 kt and 1.33 mt respectively). The worm turned in the pm and metal prices retreated accordingly as the US$ recovered.

The focus Fri will be on Premier Wen Jiabo address to the Chinese National Peoples’ Congress. An official today said China’s official military budget would rise 7.5% this year half last year and the first single digit increase since ’89. With economic clout moving East maybe the troubles inside the EU are not the main driver but China. In Japan Q4 capital spending declined subsided to 17.3% (Q3 -24.8%) The good flow of economic news in the UK continued with Feb car sales up 26.4% yoy (Jan 29.8%). In France Q4 unemployment rose to 10% (Q3 9.5%). Data thin on the ground the BoE left rates unchanged at 0.5% and followed by ECB doing the same 1%.

The Fed Beige Book indicated the economy continued to grow but only at a modest pace. The weekly jobless claims 469 k (498 k). The Q4 US non farm productivity rose to 6.9% (+6.2%) and unit labour costs fell to -5.9% (-4.4%) that is a 1.7% fall for ’09 the biggest drop since 1959. In Canada the Feb Ivey PMI was 51.9 (50.8). At 15:00 Jan factory orders rose 1.7% (Dec revised to 1.5% from 1%) and pending home sales fell 7.6% (+0.8%) and yoy up 8.8% (+9.2%).