Beware the Ides of March
Friday, March 12th, 2010The end of a very quiet week in Asia and we have a growing suspicion from anecdotal comments and discussions in the market that final metal demand is not consistent with the strong official economic data. The week end’s with focus on the US consumer and this is the real focus point, final demand.
Asian Select volume was on the light side with price locked in narrow ranges with a slight uptick as the US$ weakened in early London. The weekly Shanghai stocks registered rises cu rose 6849 tonnes to 155,469; al up 11,316 tonnes to 387,549 and zn 33 tonnes at 223,433. Before 9:00 US$ weakness the theme, then daily LME stocks all fell, as well as, on the week for all intent and purpose, cu 11 kt; al 26 kt; zn 2 kt; pb up 175 tonnes; ni 2 kt and sn 539 tonnes. In Canada the unions at Vale’s Sudbury ni operations rejected a settlement deal and the strike goes on. Parts of the Chinese pb industry closed last year by the lead poisoning accusations are beginning to restart, the Dongling Group is preparing to restart a 100 ktpa (zn 66 ktpa / pb 33 ktpa) smelter in Shaanxi province. Prices continued to move higher as the US$ weakened throughout the pre market but interestingly the dollar is dragging the metals higher unlike their unusual front running. The US data at 13:30 saw the US$ recover from 1.38 capping metal gains, then a lacklustre DJI kept the pressure on as we drifted to a close.
In Japan Jan industrial production rose 2.75% (Dec +2.5%) and yoy +18.5% (+18.2%). The Jan Indian industrial production rose 16.7% yoy (Dec +17.6%). The Feb German wholesale price index rose 0.1% (Jan +1.3%) yoy +2.1% (+1.9%). The Jan Euroland industrial production rose 1.7% (+0.6%) yoy +1.4% (-4.1%) boosting the €.
Across the Pond, Canadian Feb employment grew 21 k with unemployment at 8.2% (8.3%). The Feb US retail sales rose 0.3% against an expected fall (revised to +0.1% from +0.5%), ex autos sales up 0.8% (+0.5%). At 15:00 the preliminary Mch Uni of Michigan consumer confidence slipped to 72.5 (73.6), current index 80.8 (81.8) and expectations 67.2 (68.4). The last drop of the week was Jan business inventories was unchanged (Dec -0.2%).
Beware the Ides of March.
|
Cu $ |
|
|
|
Open |
7437 |
|
|
Off/2R |
7498.5 |
|
|
17.00 |
7435 |
|
|
Stocks |
532,575 |
|
|
+/- |
-3075 |
|
|
Al $ |
|
|
|
Open |
2232 |
|
|
Off/2R |
2245.5 |
|
|
17.00 |
2260 |
|
|
Stocks |
4,518,800 |
|
|
+/- |
-4400 |
|
|
Zn $ |
|
|
|
Open |
2340 |
|
|
Off/2R |
2356.5 |
|
|
17.00 |
2337 |
|
|
Stocks |
538,750 |
|
|
+/- |
-500 |
|
|
Pb $ |
|
|
|
Open |
2268 |
|
|
Off/2R |
2281 |
|
|
17.00 |
2255 |
|
|
Stocks |
170,150 |
|
|
+/- |
-75 |
|
|
Ni $ |
|
|
|
Open |
21264 |
|
|
Off/2R |
21795 |
|
|
17.00 |
21670 |
|
|
Stocks |
158,940 |
|
|
+/- |
-444 |
|
|
Sn $ |
|
|
|
Open |
17401 |
|
|
Off/2R |
17605 |
|
|
17.00 |
17525 |
|
|
Stocks |
23,835 |
|
|
+/- |
-25 |
|
|
Gold $ |
|
|
|
Open |
1112 |
|
|
17.00 |
1103 |
|
|
Oil $ Nymex |
|
|
|
Open |
82.2 |
|
|
17.00 |
81.4 |
|
|
US$/Euro |
|
|
|
Open |
1.369 |
|
|
17.00 |
1.376 |
|
|
US$/Yen |
|
|
|
Open |
90.65 |
|
|
17.00 |
90.4 |
|
|
US$/A$ |
|
|
|
Open |
.916 |
|
|
17.00 |
.916 |
|
|
DJI |
|
|
|
Open |
10611 |
|
|
17.00 |
10611 |
|
|
US 10yr Bond % |
|
|
|
Open |
3.73 |
|
|
17.00 |
3.72 |
|
Over the week things were mixed cu down 85, al up 20, zn rose 2, pb increased 35, ni down 680, sn lifted 175, gold down US$ 33 / oz, oil off US$ 0.2 / bbl, DJI up 50 points at time of writing, US 10 year bond yields hardly changed, US$ / € lost .015 and Shanghai down 14 points.