Against the Grain

The big news in the UK is the heaviest snow storms in 18 years so this report comes to you from the snowy North of England. Perhaps more the worrying is the rising tied of protest around the world as the as the economic downturn bites.

The focus was January manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) and while the figures still point to a contraction in the sector there are signs that the free fall has steadied. This began n Asia, Japan 29.6 (30.8), China 42.2 (41.2), India 46.7 (44.4), Russia 34.4 (33.8), France 37.9 (34.9), Germany 32.0 (32.7), Euroland 34.4 (33.9) and UK 35.8 (34.9). The LME stocks gave the market a lift as cu registered a small decline. With London at a standstill trading was very subdued. In Russia Dec industrial production fell 10.3% resulting in ’08 GDP slowing to 5.6% (8.5% in ’07).

The US Dec personal income fell 0.2% (Nov -0.4%) and spending down 1% (-0.8%). Then some good news Jan ISM manufacturing PMI was35.6 (Dec 32.9) employment was steady at 29.9 and new orders jumped to 33.2 (22.7). Dec construction spending fell 1.4% (Nov -1.2%).

The Jan JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI improved to 34.9 (Dec 33.7) below the magical 50.0 mark but there seems to be some let up in the recent collapse.